* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 11/17/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 45 53 59 70 76 80 82 80 77 71 72 V (KT) LAND 35 39 45 53 59 70 76 80 82 80 77 71 72 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 37 38 40 45 54 63 63 58 52 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 30 34 39 40 34 17 3 19 39 41 44 31 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 3 -2 -6 -1 0 -3 -3 -4 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 219 201 187 169 159 199 219 199 198 223 247 272 254 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.4 25.5 24.8 23.9 21.8 19.1 16.8 15.2 13.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 129 125 118 108 104 101 92 83 76 71 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 116 114 111 103 93 90 93 87 79 72 68 67 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.1 -56.2 -56.6 -57.3 -57.9 -58.6 -59.2 -58.7 -58.7 -59.1 -59.7 -58.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 58 62 59 56 51 49 49 46 45 40 31 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 23 26 30 33 34 31 27 27 25 23 20 24 850 MB ENV VOR 182 200 196 206 190 135 121 123 90 61 73 -50 3 200 MB DIV 87 72 107 94 73 35 31 66 70 34 23 23 29 700-850 TADV 16 17 17 3 -4 2 1 -11 -14 -19 0 40 -31 LAND (KM) 1525 1581 1640 1690 1749 1633 1506 1372 1211 1382 1747 1430 1199 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.4 27.3 28.5 29.6 31.3 32.5 34.4 37.2 40.4 43.4 46.1 49.9 LONG(DEG W) 53.1 53.1 53.0 53.4 53.7 55.1 55.1 51.6 45.9 38.3 31.2 27.7 27.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 11 12 11 8 11 22 31 32 24 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 32 30 20 8 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -6. -10. -14. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 25. 28. 31. 34. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 3. 7. 9. 13. 12. 8. 8. 6. 3. 1. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 18. 24. 35. 41. 45. 47. 45. 42. 36. 37. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 11/17/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982013 INVEST 11/17/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 11/17/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)