* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 11/17/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 44 50 57 70 78 83 87 87 84 77 71 V (KT) LAND 35 38 44 50 57 70 78 83 87 87 84 77 71 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 38 40 43 47 53 63 68 64 57 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 22 28 33 33 19 11 15 20 38 36 38 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 5 -7 -4 -2 0 -7 1 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 252 212 185 177 160 175 255 194 199 212 240 268 275 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 26.8 25.5 24.8 24.5 23.6 21.1 18.2 16.6 15.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 134 132 124 110 101 103 101 90 80 74 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 121 122 122 112 97 85 91 94 86 76 70 67 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.6 -56.5 -56.7 -57.1 -58.3 -58.8 -59.0 -59.1 -58.8 -59.1 -59.7 -59.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 5 5 5 6 5 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 62 64 67 67 55 49 52 46 44 46 37 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 17 22 25 29 33 32 28 27 25 23 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 145 173 193 206 208 158 121 147 120 63 104 -15 -78 200 MB DIV 43 91 101 125 111 57 37 31 66 40 38 18 10 700-850 TADV 6 10 10 10 2 -3 4 -3 -12 -3 0 26 25 LAND (KM) 1487 1559 1637 1700 1780 1651 1468 1446 1324 1250 1548 1593 1316 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.6 25.6 27.2 28.8 31.3 32.4 33.1 35.0 38.2 41.5 43.8 46.1 LONG(DEG W) 52.5 52.2 51.9 52.2 52.5 54.5 56.4 55.0 50.1 43.1 35.1 28.8 25.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 11 13 16 16 12 5 14 27 34 30 20 15 HEAT CONTENT 34 34 30 24 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 774 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 18. 21. 25. 29. 32. 35. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 9. 15. 16. 13. 11. 9. 6. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 11. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 9. 15. 22. 35. 43. 48. 52. 52. 49. 42. 36. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 11/17/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982013 INVEST 11/17/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 11/17/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)