* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 11/17/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 42 48 54 67 78 83 87 88 86 81 72 V (KT) LAND 35 37 42 48 54 67 78 83 87 88 86 81 72 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 38 40 44 47 52 61 70 69 62 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 23 29 33 28 9 4 17 33 44 40 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 0 1 0 -2 -4 0 -2 0 -6 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 293 247 216 191 180 145 212 198 219 207 225 240 295 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.6 26.5 25.7 25.3 25.0 23.5 21.5 18.9 17.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 133 135 132 119 110 106 108 101 92 83 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 117 119 121 118 106 95 90 98 95 87 79 76 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -56.5 -56.4 -56.2 -56.4 -57.3 -58.1 -58.7 -58.8 -58.6 -58.8 -59.3 -60.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 5 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 57 59 61 64 58 49 48 46 39 34 38 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 17 22 25 31 33 30 27 26 24 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR 135 154 176 201 208 203 153 138 132 92 52 16 -33 200 MB DIV 13 44 83 81 115 59 28 14 53 60 35 23 7 700-850 TADV 6 5 11 11 11 -4 1 2 -2 -7 -4 -23 34 LAND (KM) 1420 1462 1506 1565 1632 1705 1642 1551 1556 1398 1385 1746 1283 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.1 24.6 25.8 26.9 29.3 30.9 31.5 32.5 34.7 37.8 40.7 42.4 LONG(DEG W) 53.2 53.0 52.8 52.8 52.8 54.0 55.8 56.5 53.6 48.1 41.3 33.0 24.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 9 11 12 12 8 6 19 29 33 34 31 HEAT CONTENT 40 36 36 36 29 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 16. 20. 23. 26. 29. 33. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 5. 7. 14. 18. 16. 13. 11. 8. 5. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 13. 19. 32. 43. 48. 52. 53. 51. 46. 37. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 11/17/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982013 INVEST 11/17/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 11/17/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)