* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/13/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 33 33 33 34 33 33 34 35 37 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 33 33 33 34 33 33 34 35 37 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 29 28 28 28 29 30 31 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 29 26 22 20 22 15 20 19 23 25 31 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 3 -1 0 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 242 250 253 243 238 237 264 288 286 260 251 256 266 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 147 146 146 145 145 147 148 151 153 154 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 146 142 140 139 136 136 136 136 139 138 139 137 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 60 58 56 53 51 47 44 45 42 46 51 58 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -13 -25 -36 -46 -49 -47 -41 -41 -30 -26 -18 -11 200 MB DIV 42 47 43 23 19 11 -23 -12 -2 4 7 -5 -4 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 2 1 2 0 2 1 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 991 999 1007 1026 1052 1035 965 921 879 878 801 718 660 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.2 17.8 18.4 18.8 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 48.5 49.4 50.3 51.0 51.7 52.8 54.0 55.1 56.2 57.2 58.1 58.9 59.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 40 39 37 38 39 30 25 35 51 43 34 33 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 757 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/13/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982013 INVEST 10/13/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/13/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)