* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/13/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 26 25 23 24 26 26 28 31 34 35 V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 26 25 23 24 26 26 28 31 34 35 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 28 27 24 23 22 23 24 26 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 28 29 29 25 24 16 14 17 15 20 26 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 1 2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 245 243 247 249 249 247 279 280 292 275 259 247 256 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 152 150 146 146 146 145 147 148 150 151 153 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 150 147 142 140 138 136 137 137 138 139 139 140 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 57 53 46 46 45 44 46 51 56 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -8 -14 -28 -44 -55 -48 -45 -36 -24 -19 -3 5 200 MB DIV 8 41 36 28 18 7 -7 -21 -4 16 11 10 -12 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 0 0 0 2 4 LAND (KM) 979 971 974 989 1010 1062 989 916 869 836 839 770 687 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.9 13.3 13.8 14.3 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.6 18.3 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 47.7 48.6 49.5 50.3 51.0 52.2 53.3 54.5 55.6 56.6 57.6 58.4 59.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 36 41 41 38 39 37 27 26 42 51 42 34 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 837 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -6. -4. -4. -2. 1. 4. 5. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/13/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982013 INVEST 10/13/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/13/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)