* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/13/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 27 25 24 22 22 23 24 28 32 35 V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 27 25 24 22 22 23 24 28 32 35 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 28 27 25 23 21 21 21 23 25 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 24 22 24 25 23 23 15 18 14 15 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 3 0 0 1 2 4 0 3 0 1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 244 245 243 239 238 234 253 264 279 295 286 276 270 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 153 150 148 144 143 143 143 145 145 148 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 155 151 146 144 136 133 133 132 133 133 135 137 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 64 63 62 60 56 51 49 45 47 45 46 44 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -13 -17 -18 -31 -42 -36 -30 -13 -8 -6 -9 -6 200 MB DIV 16 14 30 47 34 14 27 -4 -17 -15 -9 10 -1 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1124 1105 1084 1082 1090 1130 1168 1164 1097 1032 975 929 895 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 15.0 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 45.0 46.0 46.9 47.7 48.5 49.8 50.7 51.7 52.7 53.7 54.7 55.7 56.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 44 33 32 39 37 26 32 33 23 22 31 48 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -2. 2. 5. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/13/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982013 INVEST 10/13/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/13/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED