* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/13/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 26 25 23 21 19 19 20 24 29 32 V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 26 25 23 21 19 19 20 24 29 32 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 28 27 24 22 21 19 19 20 22 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 21 20 24 25 26 20 20 20 15 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 7 2 0 3 2 3 2 0 0 -1 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 251 253 250 237 234 238 228 259 272 294 288 281 262 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 152 150 145 143 143 143 143 145 146 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 155 154 150 146 138 134 132 132 131 133 134 134 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 66 64 63 62 59 53 52 46 45 42 42 40 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -12 -12 -13 -15 -39 -34 -34 -23 -12 -10 -10 -3 200 MB DIV 49 21 17 25 33 -8 7 -2 -18 -1 -13 0 -13 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -2 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1183 1152 1123 1113 1112 1152 1193 1217 1174 1105 1037 977 952 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.8 15.7 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 43.9 44.9 45.8 46.7 47.5 48.9 50.0 50.8 51.9 52.9 53.9 55.0 55.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 44 45 34 32 40 28 26 31 29 21 23 36 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -6. -1. 2. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/13/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982013 INVEST 10/13/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/13/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)