* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/12/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 28 26 24 21 20 22 25 31 34 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 28 26 24 21 20 22 25 31 34 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 25 23 21 20 20 21 23 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 24 24 22 20 25 25 24 16 18 15 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 12 6 1 0 4 1 2 0 0 -2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 256 253 255 247 235 235 226 240 262 277 295 289 298 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 153 151 146 144 141 143 143 143 143 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 151 151 152 148 140 135 130 132 132 131 131 133 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 67 63 62 61 60 55 50 50 44 43 38 39 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 13 12 10 9 8 6 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 11 0 -10 -8 -7 -24 -36 -26 -28 -16 -9 -1 -6 200 MB DIV 61 58 28 16 44 7 -4 2 -10 -27 -11 -3 -11 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1267 1225 1191 1178 1163 1170 1212 1235 1245 1229 1151 1072 998 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.8 13.3 14.3 15.3 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.8 16.9 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 42.7 43.6 44.4 45.3 46.1 47.5 48.7 49.5 50.3 51.3 52.3 53.3 54.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 9 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 28 44 51 37 29 47 25 22 27 35 29 26 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -11. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -8. -5. 1. 4. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/12/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982013 INVEST 10/12/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/12/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)