* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/12/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 31 31 27 25 23 24 28 32 35 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 31 31 27 25 23 24 28 32 35 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 28 26 24 22 20 19 20 22 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 28 28 24 20 22 28 24 20 13 13 18 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 4 2 1 -1 -1 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 256 265 266 258 256 233 245 246 240 248 266 260 259 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 154 157 157 155 150 146 145 146 148 153 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 153 155 157 157 153 147 141 138 139 140 146 146 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 68 63 62 61 59 54 53 46 44 39 39 38 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 17 16 16 15 12 11 10 9 9 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 17 16 12 9 0 -3 -18 -33 -37 -44 -40 -45 -39 200 MB DIV 70 71 64 56 48 17 3 7 -13 8 -6 26 7 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -4 -2 2 0 1 2 2 1 2 4 LAND (KM) 1387 1292 1204 1148 1098 1022 1002 1031 1099 1008 898 850 738 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 15 21 37 47 39 34 46 41 42 29 44 58 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -13. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -5. -7. -6. -2. 2. 5. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/12/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982013 INVEST 10/12/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/12/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)