* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/12/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 31 30 26 23 18 15 17 20 24 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 31 30 26 23 18 15 17 20 24 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 31 30 27 25 23 21 19 18 18 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 24 24 24 23 20 27 28 30 25 21 24 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 11 10 9 9 7 5 3 3 1 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 252 251 256 251 247 228 221 230 230 245 260 275 285 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 147 147 149 149 147 144 141 141 139 140 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 143 144 143 144 143 139 135 130 127 126 127 128 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 68 66 62 62 61 56 53 51 49 45 44 41 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 17 17 16 15 13 11 10 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 14 16 17 15 17 14 2 -4 -4 -6 0 -5 3 200 MB DIV 84 77 73 66 56 26 14 1 0 -7 0 -11 -20 700-850 TADV -3 -3 0 0 -1 0 1 2 2 2 0 2 1 LAND (KM) 1513 1452 1395 1356 1322 1288 1315 1362 1445 1471 1480 1463 1436 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.3 12.5 13.1 14.1 15.1 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.3 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 39.8 40.6 41.4 42.1 42.8 44.0 44.9 45.5 45.8 46.2 46.8 47.6 48.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 20 17 17 22 36 54 28 19 16 15 17 21 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 779 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -18. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -7. -12. -15. -13. -10. -6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/12/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982013 INVEST 10/12/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/12/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)