* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/11/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 35 34 31 28 22 19 19 21 25 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 35 34 31 28 22 19 19 21 25 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 32 31 29 27 25 23 21 20 20 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 22 21 22 25 23 24 27 28 27 22 23 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 9 11 9 6 5 2 5 3 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 245 240 234 239 239 235 211 227 228 241 257 279 300 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 145 144 146 147 146 142 140 139 139 139 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 143 141 139 141 142 139 134 129 125 124 125 125 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -54.3 -54.0 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 64 65 65 62 61 57 54 51 48 47 42 44 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 16 16 16 16 14 12 10 9 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 13 18 24 29 24 19 12 0 0 0 4 9 17 200 MB DIV 88 102 95 100 83 30 29 9 2 5 9 -9 -15 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -1 0 0 0 2 2 1 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 1671 1635 1567 1521 1478 1409 1404 1438 1514 1562 1569 1559 1526 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.3 14.2 15.3 16.5 17.2 17.5 17.7 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 37.9 38.8 39.7 40.4 41.1 42.5 43.7 44.6 45.1 45.4 45.8 46.4 47.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 20 16 17 28 31 19 17 16 14 16 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 766 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -8. -11. -11. -9. -5. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/11/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982013 INVEST 10/11/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/11/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED