* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/11/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 27 24 22 18 16 16 19 22 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 27 24 22 18 16 16 19 22 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 23 21 22 26 24 22 26 26 28 25 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 7 7 7 9 6 6 2 3 3 1 1 SHEAR DIR 249 246 241 243 243 235 234 224 236 233 253 267 273 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 145 145 144 146 147 145 142 139 140 139 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 143 143 141 140 141 142 138 132 128 127 126 127 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 64 63 65 65 62 60 55 53 49 49 45 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 16 15 14 13 11 10 9 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 14 11 15 21 25 18 11 5 -4 7 5 6 2 200 MB DIV 44 84 86 89 81 45 17 18 12 2 0 0 8 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -3 -2 0 -2 0 0 2 0 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 1678 1679 1671 1604 1540 1453 1389 1402 1425 1480 1483 1475 1447 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.9 13.4 14.4 15.3 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 36.5 37.5 38.4 39.3 40.1 41.5 42.9 44.0 44.8 45.2 45.8 46.5 47.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 5 4 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 22 27 23 18 17 36 27 19 18 17 17 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 751 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -9. -12. -17. -19. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. -23. -23. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -3. -7. -9. -9. -6. -3. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/11/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982013 INVEST 10/11/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/11/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED