* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/11/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 30 29 27 24 21 20 21 24 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 30 29 27 24 21 20 21 24 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 21 19 18 17 17 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 26 20 20 19 24 22 21 25 26 25 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 4 5 6 5 6 2 1 1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 252 252 249 236 238 232 232 223 227 219 241 253 258 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 145 145 144 144 145 141 140 138 140 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 145 144 143 142 140 139 139 132 129 126 127 128 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -53.6 -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 66 63 64 64 65 62 59 55 53 51 52 46 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 16 16 16 15 14 13 11 10 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 20 17 14 19 21 18 13 12 2 9 16 4 5 200 MB DIV 36 39 64 94 98 83 30 32 11 10 4 7 17 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 0 -2 0 1 1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1683 1674 1673 1676 1662 1562 1492 1475 1512 1560 1585 1583 1576 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.0 12.2 12.7 13.4 14.4 15.6 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 34.7 35.7 36.7 37.6 38.5 40.0 41.5 42.9 43.9 44.5 45.0 45.9 46.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 5 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 16 18 23 25 19 19 23 21 20 17 16 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -13. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -5. -4. -1. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/11/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/11/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)