* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/11/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 30 30 27 24 23 23 25 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 31 30 30 27 24 23 23 25 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 22 21 20 20 19 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 24 22 18 17 18 20 20 20 24 27 25 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 3 5 8 6 1 5 0 3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 246 252 256 239 230 232 227 219 214 218 226 244 250 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 145 145 145 145 145 145 143 141 139 140 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 145 144 143 143 141 140 139 135 131 127 128 126 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 64 65 63 63 64 60 60 57 53 51 51 49 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 16 16 15 16 14 14 12 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 20 22 19 18 25 28 15 15 10 -6 10 10 13 200 MB DIV 27 45 33 63 92 88 39 17 21 3 6 9 11 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 0 2 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 1719 1692 1672 1673 1680 1627 1540 1496 1518 1550 1602 1604 1609 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.8 12.0 12.5 13.1 14.0 15.2 16.2 17.2 17.7 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 33.6 34.6 35.6 36.5 37.4 39.1 40.6 42.1 43.3 44.1 44.7 45.5 46.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 16 17 22 23 18 20 21 21 18 15 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -10. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -22. -23. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. 2. -1. -2. -2. 0. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/11/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/11/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)