* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/10/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 31 28 29 30 31 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 31 28 29 30 31 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 23 23 23 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 19 21 21 16 16 18 13 19 19 21 21 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 0 -1 1 5 5 4 4 1 3 2 2 SHEAR DIR 256 256 261 264 261 247 240 226 223 224 216 228 238 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 147 147 145 146 146 147 146 142 140 140 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 143 147 147 144 144 144 144 140 134 130 128 127 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -53.8 -54.4 -53.5 -54.3 -53.9 -54.3 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 66 67 69 66 66 66 63 61 57 56 53 53 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 13 11 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 19 24 26 24 21 25 11 15 8 -4 3 10 13 200 MB DIV 20 24 44 32 58 72 51 37 26 -6 18 14 2 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 0 2 2 2 1 2 LAND (KM) 1688 1648 1613 1606 1606 1618 1511 1438 1422 1457 1492 1513 1514 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.7 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.6 12.2 13.0 14.1 15.2 16.2 16.8 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 33.0 34.0 34.9 35.9 36.8 38.5 40.2 41.8 43.3 44.2 45.0 45.6 46.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 17 19 21 25 20 22 31 22 20 19 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -22. -23. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. 4. 5. 6. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/10/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/10/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED