* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/10/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 25 23 19 19 20 22 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 25 23 19 19 20 22 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 19 18 16 16 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 22 24 24 20 30 24 23 24 27 25 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 0 0 3 0 4 3 6 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 266 245 249 253 256 239 250 242 231 226 219 236 245 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 144 145 147 145 147 147 147 145 143 141 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 141 143 145 147 145 146 146 144 139 134 130 128 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 65 65 67 69 66 65 62 61 58 56 53 53 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 22 20 24 24 24 20 11 2 3 0 -11 4 5 200 MB DIV 17 20 35 39 29 76 48 47 13 24 1 14 2 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 -2 3 0 1 LAND (KM) 1639 1696 1655 1623 1599 1616 1532 1430 1378 1390 1421 1448 1447 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.5 12.0 12.9 13.9 15.2 16.3 17.1 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 32.0 33.0 33.9 34.9 35.9 37.9 39.8 41.8 43.7 45.2 46.4 47.5 48.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 9 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 16 17 19 25 21 22 36 20 19 23 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 785 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -23. -24. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -6. -5. -3. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/10/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/10/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)