* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/10/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 27 30 31 31 31 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 27 30 31 31 31 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 25 24 23 22 22 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 11 14 17 18 17 22 18 19 21 21 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 3 2 0 0 2 0 1 5 -1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 255 257 238 244 245 241 232 231 225 218 231 224 230 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 139 141 142 145 145 145 143 140 138 137 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 138 138 140 141 144 144 142 139 133 128 126 125 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 -54.4 -53.5 -54.3 -54.0 -54.6 -54.1 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 66 64 64 66 67 65 63 62 60 58 56 53 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 15 13 13 13 12 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 26 21 22 28 30 22 15 9 15 17 4 5 7 200 MB DIV 28 21 16 31 37 59 81 52 42 34 -4 15 33 700-850 TADV 2 0 1 0 1 0 -1 0 0 0 1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1371 1467 1563 1658 1708 1679 1690 1688 1632 1639 1681 1712 1715 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.4 12.0 12.9 13.9 15.2 16.3 17.3 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 29.4 30.4 31.3 32.3 33.2 35.1 36.9 38.7 40.2 41.5 42.3 43.1 43.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 13 17 20 19 20 23 28 18 17 21 27 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. -23. -25. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 2. 2. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/10/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/10/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)