* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/10/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 30 31 32 31 31 27 28 25 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 30 31 32 31 31 27 28 25 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 25 24 23 21 20 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 12 13 18 21 21 23 24 20 24 26 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 1 0 -2 2 2 1 4 2 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 256 252 253 243 249 253 236 242 239 241 229 243 236 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 139 139 141 144 145 144 142 140 137 136 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 140 138 138 140 144 143 141 138 134 129 125 124 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 71 69 66 66 67 66 63 62 62 59 57 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 13 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 23 22 21 18 23 23 9 10 4 5 -2 -7 -7 200 MB DIV 31 34 28 25 30 31 95 58 52 34 14 18 15 700-850 TADV 1 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 -1 0 1 -1 LAND (KM) 1254 1346 1439 1532 1626 1718 1724 1768 1705 1681 1732 1778 1803 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.4 12.1 12.9 13.9 15.1 16.5 17.6 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 28.2 29.2 30.1 31.1 32.0 34.1 36.0 37.8 39.3 40.8 41.8 42.5 43.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 11 16 20 17 21 26 23 17 20 27 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -21. -23. -24. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. 0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 2. 3. 0. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/10/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/10/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)