* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/09/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 34 37 38 39 39 34 30 29 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 34 37 38 39 39 34 30 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 28 28 27 25 23 21 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 8 9 13 16 19 19 21 25 23 24 29 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 1 0 0 3 2 0 0 1 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 281 258 239 247 250 244 230 237 236 244 234 249 252 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 141 139 139 143 144 144 143 140 136 137 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 140 138 139 142 143 142 139 134 128 127 124 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -53.8 -54.4 -53.5 -54.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -54.3 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 8 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 65 64 67 62 60 60 61 59 60 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 13 14 14 15 16 16 18 20 17 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 22 18 16 17 18 25 16 13 13 5 -8 -20 -29 200 MB DIV 31 24 30 22 21 43 56 88 74 22 31 18 31 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 2 2 2 0 -1 0 1 4 4 4 LAND (KM) 1159 1253 1343 1433 1525 1735 1767 1802 1751 1729 1795 1892 1974 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.6 12.3 13.1 14.3 15.6 17.3 18.9 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 27.3 28.3 29.2 30.2 31.1 33.2 35.3 37.3 39.1 40.7 41.9 42.5 43.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 8 11 15 17 19 22 23 20 24 29 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):277/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. -23. -23. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 9. 5. 4. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/09/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/09/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)