* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/09/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 32 29 25 22 20 18 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 32 34 32 29 25 22 20 18 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 27 28 27 25 22 20 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 9 13 16 23 25 24 29 29 30 30 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 4 2 0 1 9 7 7 4 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 186 226 228 236 245 250 248 237 248 253 270 265 270 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 141 139 142 144 142 141 139 137 137 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 141 140 139 138 140 142 139 136 132 128 126 125 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 72 69 66 65 63 63 61 61 58 60 60 57 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 14 14 14 13 12 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 34 27 24 22 22 17 13 5 3 -6 -20 -39 -49 200 MB DIV 14 2 8 18 10 19 21 68 37 32 15 13 -2 700-850 TADV 3 3 4 4 2 2 1 -2 -1 -3 1 0 3 LAND (KM) 1135 1209 1280 1364 1450 1637 1838 1865 1826 1763 1737 1757 1780 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.6 12.1 12.7 13.5 14.3 15.2 16.1 17.1 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 27.1 27.9 28.7 29.6 30.5 32.4 34.4 36.4 38.2 39.8 41.2 42.2 43.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 6 8 10 16 16 19 25 21 20 24 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -5. -10. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -21. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 7. 4. 0. -3. -5. -7. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/09/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/09/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)