* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/09/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 36 39 38 37 35 33 30 27 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 36 39 38 37 35 33 30 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 31 30 29 26 23 20 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 6 11 14 19 26 27 25 29 29 27 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 2 2 0 4 7 2 -5 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 150 208 241 253 249 248 244 232 225 223 237 230 235 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 140 141 141 144 144 142 141 139 139 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 139 138 139 139 143 142 138 135 133 130 127 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.0 -54.4 -53.4 -53.9 -53.2 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 73 71 68 66 65 61 65 62 60 58 59 57 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 14 16 16 17 17 17 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 43 39 31 28 22 12 11 3 -4 -7 -13 -25 -27 200 MB DIV 10 13 7 10 17 11 18 40 58 44 24 28 20 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 1 2 0 -2 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 2 LAND (KM) 1103 1174 1239 1317 1398 1584 1787 1853 1831 1748 1713 1707 1739 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.9 11.1 11.4 11.6 12.1 12.6 13.3 14.0 14.9 15.9 17.0 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 26.8 27.6 28.3 29.2 30.0 31.9 33.9 36.0 37.9 39.7 41.3 42.8 43.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 9 9 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 6 7 9 15 13 17 24 20 18 23 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -7. -11. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -22. -23. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 14. 12. 10. 8. 5. 3. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/09/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/09/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)