* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/09/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 33 37 41 42 40 39 36 35 32 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 33 37 41 42 40 39 36 35 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 32 32 31 29 25 22 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 3 6 11 18 22 26 26 25 30 30 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 2 4 0 4 3 6 5 0 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 127 183 221 256 252 258 248 249 233 223 234 237 236 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 143 142 141 141 144 144 144 143 142 140 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 141 140 139 140 143 143 142 140 138 133 131 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 73 73 69 67 66 60 61 61 61 61 61 58 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 13 14 16 16 17 16 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 42 42 37 30 25 17 5 3 -6 -2 -11 -18 -21 200 MB DIV 20 23 21 28 21 8 11 1 30 46 47 45 22 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 0 -5 -4 -3 -3 -4 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1065 1140 1207 1285 1366 1566 1767 1776 1787 1679 1608 1589 1593 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.5 13.2 14.1 15.0 16.1 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 26.4 27.2 27.9 28.8 29.6 31.6 33.6 35.7 37.8 39.8 41.7 43.4 44.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 6 6 8 17 15 18 25 20 16 22 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -18. -21. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 16. 17. 15. 14. 11. 10. 7. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/09/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/09/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)