* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/08/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 40 45 48 46 46 46 49 49 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 40 45 48 46 46 46 49 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 34 36 36 35 32 29 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 4 7 17 18 20 27 24 20 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 3 5 4 5 8 4 7 6 5 2 SHEAR DIR 133 130 188 225 277 287 289 281 265 267 253 267 244 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.5 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 143 142 141 139 144 149 147 147 150 151 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 142 141 140 139 145 151 148 148 149 150 149 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.5 -54.0 -54.7 -54.1 -54.2 -53.7 -54.2 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 70 73 72 68 65 64 61 65 63 65 63 64 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 12 13 14 14 15 16 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 37 43 42 41 36 31 21 15 2 -1 -8 -11 -13 200 MB DIV 27 28 22 7 13 17 31 4 6 9 24 21 9 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -4 -4 -2 -2 -1 2 5 LAND (KM) 1037 1119 1202 1294 1386 1588 1624 1500 1449 1441 1326 1251 1219 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.5 10.3 10.1 9.8 9.9 10.3 11.0 11.8 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 26.1 26.9 27.7 28.6 29.5 31.4 33.3 35.4 37.5 39.5 41.4 43.0 44.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 7 7 10 20 21 24 23 18 16 23 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 5. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 20. 23. 21. 21. 21. 24. 24. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/08/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/08/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)