* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/08/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 52 57 60 60 59 59 59 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 52 57 60 60 59 59 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 36 40 43 43 41 38 35 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 1 4 2 6 18 21 24 24 27 22 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 1 4 7 7 7 5 4 2 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 66 290 178 204 253 318 306 313 304 292 295 294 294 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 141 140 140 143 146 143 141 144 146 150 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 141 139 138 139 143 148 142 140 144 149 153 150 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 71 72 74 72 67 63 60 63 62 68 70 74 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 13 14 15 18 20 22 23 23 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 25 24 33 33 35 27 28 32 29 23 19 20 31 200 MB DIV 18 29 39 26 16 43 28 40 30 29 43 81 65 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 0 0 -1 -2 -3 0 0 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1152 1221 1290 1370 1450 1619 1448 1307 1233 1193 1202 1276 1349 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.7 9.9 9.7 9.5 8.8 7.9 7.1 6.8 6.9 7.5 8.5 9.7 LONG(DEG W) 27.0 27.7 28.4 29.1 29.8 31.3 32.7 33.8 34.6 35.6 37.0 38.6 40.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 8 8 8 5 4 6 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 8 11 14 24 26 31 34 38 44 31 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 27. 32. 35. 35. 34. 34. 34. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/08/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/08/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)