* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/08/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 42 50 59 66 68 69 67 67 64 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 42 50 59 66 68 69 67 67 64 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 38 44 49 52 53 52 49 47 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 2 2 2 3 9 17 19 20 20 21 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 2 5 9 7 8 7 5 4 7 6 SHEAR DIR 55 13 289 325 245 287 312 308 320 296 299 291 300 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 141 140 138 140 146 144 139 137 138 144 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 143 140 137 136 140 148 145 139 137 141 149 153 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 -53.9 -54.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 74 71 72 73 70 62 61 58 60 58 62 60 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 11 12 14 17 18 21 23 24 23 24 21 850 MB ENV VOR 27 29 30 36 37 32 28 39 41 38 35 42 33 200 MB DIV 46 14 38 44 31 36 20 62 30 -5 2 16 5 700-850 TADV -6 -2 -2 -3 0 -1 -1 -3 0 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1134 1211 1290 1365 1440 1604 1466 1297 1166 1083 1017 985 990 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.7 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.3 8.1 7.0 6.1 5.7 5.6 5.8 6.2 LONG(DEG W) 26.8 27.6 28.4 29.1 29.8 31.2 32.7 33.8 34.6 35.4 36.6 38.3 40.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 7 7 7 9 8 7 5 5 7 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 9 11 13 22 26 31 36 43 66 59 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 9. 6. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 25. 34. 41. 43. 44. 42. 42. 39. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/08/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/08/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)