* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/08/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 46 56 69 81 84 85 86 83 83 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 46 56 69 81 84 85 86 83 83 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 38 47 55 65 72 73 69 65 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 4 1 0 0 2 8 15 16 19 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 2 4 11 13 10 9 8 6 2 0 SHEAR DIR 76 26 351 340 81 135 50 307 306 306 302 302 276 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 140 138 138 140 144 147 145 143 146 149 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 144 139 136 135 138 144 145 141 138 143 148 145 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 72 70 70 70 64 62 60 62 62 69 73 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 13 14 15 19 21 24 26 27 28 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 51 38 41 40 40 40 34 37 40 41 46 45 51 200 MB DIV 81 51 33 57 79 37 45 20 25 21 60 30 71 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -5 -4 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1162 1242 1325 1395 1459 1614 1558 1407 1316 1286 1312 1378 1495 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.2 9.9 9.2 8.2 7.6 7.4 7.8 8.7 10.1 LONG(DEG W) 27.0 27.9 28.7 29.4 30.1 31.5 32.9 33.9 34.5 34.7 35.0 35.6 36.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 3 2 4 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 10 10 11 14 22 23 26 30 31 31 30 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. 12. 10. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 14. 15. 15. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 21. 31. 44. 56. 59. 60. 61. 58. 58. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/08/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/08/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED