* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/07/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 32 40 50 58 60 62 61 61 58 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 32 40 50 58 60 62 61 61 58 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 28 30 32 32 32 30 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 3 2 3 3 5 4 9 17 19 19 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 2 3 6 15 13 10 2 7 4 3 SHEAR DIR 157 145 328 280 251 241 189 231 258 278 257 258 268 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 141 139 139 140 147 150 146 144 142 142 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 147 142 139 138 139 148 153 149 147 145 146 146 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -53.9 -54.4 -53.7 -54.1 -53.4 -53.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 75 74 70 67 67 64 59 56 50 54 50 52 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 12 14 16 20 24 25 26 25 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR 55 47 36 43 46 48 44 48 43 48 56 42 17 200 MB DIV 97 87 53 27 45 52 63 39 31 1 -13 -36 -11 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -6 -6 -4 0 -1 0 -2 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1131 1232 1335 1425 1506 1681 1545 1370 1183 1039 935 863 769 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.3 9.7 8.7 7.4 6.3 5.5 5.1 5.0 LONG(DEG W) 26.7 27.8 28.8 29.7 30.6 32.3 34.1 35.8 37.3 38.3 39.4 40.8 42.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 10 9 9 8 10 10 8 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 11 12 16 22 23 32 46 46 55 55 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 11. 9. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 20. 30. 38. 40. 42. 41. 41. 38. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/07/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/07/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)