* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/07/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 36 45 54 57 58 55 55 58 64 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 36 45 54 57 58 55 55 58 64 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 29 31 31 28 24 20 19 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 6 7 8 11 17 28 34 28 23 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 3 3 8 14 16 14 11 5 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 150 156 170 209 236 230 232 231 253 247 267 284 330 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 140 140 141 144 144 143 142 140 141 143 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 144 141 140 141 143 143 142 139 135 134 134 132 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -55.2 -55.2 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 64 62 62 55 53 50 52 53 54 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 10 12 15 18 22 26 25 26 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 72 78 76 67 71 87 71 16 -10 -33 -57 -57 -76 200 MB DIV 81 98 104 51 37 69 49 17 -12 -22 19 -9 -19 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -3 1 3 9 8 12 8 6 1 LAND (KM) 1218 1332 1433 1528 1627 1794 1797 1776 1679 1683 1718 1776 1804 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.3 12.1 12.8 13.7 14.8 16.4 18.0 19.5 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 27.7 28.9 30.0 31.1 32.1 34.0 36.1 38.3 40.5 42.4 44.0 45.6 47.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 12 16 21 15 20 26 16 22 28 24 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 4. -1. -5. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 14. 14. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 11. 16. 25. 34. 37. 38. 35. 35. 38. 44. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/07/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/07/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)