* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/07/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 32 39 43 43 40 37 37 38 42 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 32 39 43 43 40 37 37 38 42 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 32 33 31 27 23 20 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 4 6 9 9 17 22 38 34 24 21 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 0 -1 3 13 14 11 7 9 2 2 SHEAR DIR 149 163 150 171 191 239 245 252 258 265 266 283 284 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 140 139 139 141 142 142 138 136 137 141 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 143 140 139 141 140 140 136 132 129 132 133 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.3 -54.7 -54.1 -54.8 -54.7 -55.0 -54.7 -55.4 -55.5 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 73 71 70 66 64 60 58 57 61 61 64 61 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 62 70 73 66 66 62 38 20 2 4 -20 -20 200 MB DIV 54 81 106 114 88 58 36 9 1 24 38 -4 0 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 1 11 8 5 1 1 LAND (KM) 1073 1194 1315 1416 1522 1731 1852 1857 1740 1707 1696 1707 1706 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.3 12.2 13.1 14.0 15.1 16.6 17.9 19.0 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 26.3 27.6 28.8 30.0 31.1 33.3 35.3 37.6 40.0 42.3 44.2 46.0 48.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 12 12 12 11 12 12 13 12 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 9 9 15 15 17 19 16 19 23 18 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 0. -6. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 19. 23. 23. 20. 17. 17. 18. 22. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/07/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/07/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)