* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 10/07/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 31 36 45 52 55 56 52 51 51 52 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 31 36 45 52 55 56 52 51 51 52 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 23 25 27 33 38 41 40 37 33 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 6 7 9 11 12 22 28 37 32 31 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -4 -3 3 9 12 13 11 9 5 3 SHEAR DIR 73 130 146 158 173 212 223 255 250 258 261 269 271 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 138 138 138 139 140 143 143 141 140 142 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 144 139 139 137 137 137 140 141 139 137 137 138 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -54.8 -55.0 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 65 63 58 56 54 58 58 64 62 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 65 60 63 69 78 69 65 54 33 15 7 -2 -17 200 MB DIV 43 61 77 98 107 58 42 30 21 3 23 30 13 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 2 3 4 2 0 -7 -8 LAND (KM) 1173 1286 1398 1484 1574 1745 1784 1793 1726 1594 1527 1472 1463 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.9 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.6 12.3 12.9 13.6 14.3 15.3 16.3 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 27.2 28.4 29.5 30.5 31.5 33.3 34.8 36.7 38.8 41.1 43.3 45.5 47.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 10 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 9 12 17 18 17 19 26 14 17 14 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. -2. -6. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 16. 25. 32. 35. 36. 32. 31. 31. 32. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 10/07/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 10/07/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED