* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 09/08/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 35 38 41 42 41 36 32 27 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 31 35 38 41 42 41 36 32 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 29 31 34 38 41 44 43 39 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 14 15 14 11 10 13 20 28 36 48 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -3 -4 -2 -3 -1 -1 0 -3 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 184 185 187 191 199 206 242 256 259 237 234 215 207 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.2 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 120 119 119 120 121 126 130 131 131 130 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 112 112 111 110 111 112 117 119 118 118 120 118 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 54 53 50 47 43 38 34 34 38 44 47 45 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 70 68 63 55 57 48 39 58 60 83 79 74 42 200 MB DIV 18 27 39 38 23 -12 -14 -29 -30 -31 -39 -38 -17 700-850 TADV 1 4 3 5 9 1 3 2 -1 0 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 1999 2089 2127 2091 2059 1961 1818 1666 1509 1431 1428 1548 1680 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.2 18.5 18.7 18.5 18.0 17.2 16.8 16.9 18.1 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 36.1 36.9 37.7 38.6 39.5 41.2 43.1 44.9 46.4 47.2 47.5 47.5 47.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 6 3 3 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 6 5 4 8 6 8 11 13 12 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 22. 24. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -4. -10. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -13. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 16. 11. 7. 2. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 09/08/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982013 INVEST 09/08/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 09/08/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)