* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 09/08/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 37 41 45 47 47 46 42 37 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 37 41 45 47 47 46 42 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 32 36 40 45 49 51 49 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 11 13 14 11 9 7 13 14 26 35 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -3 -4 -6 -2 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 178 178 171 173 190 187 208 223 242 251 233 217 208 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.6 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 120 121 121 121 123 126 131 134 132 134 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 113 113 113 112 114 118 123 124 119 124 123 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 54 54 54 52 48 43 40 34 39 42 49 48 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 75 73 73 68 57 61 52 37 51 52 67 50 49 200 MB DIV 22 32 37 52 52 21 -12 -32 -33 -28 -29 -27 2 700-850 TADV 1 1 4 2 2 4 2 4 1 2 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1932 2014 2098 2081 2047 1946 1808 1645 1456 1303 1219 1274 1414 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.4 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.1 17.6 16.6 15.7 15.1 15.6 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 35.5 36.3 37.0 37.9 38.8 40.8 42.7 44.6 46.3 47.6 48.1 48.0 47.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 6 1 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 8 12 21 24 21 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 3. 0. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 22. 21. 17. 12. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 09/08/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982013 INVEST 09/08/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 09/08/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)