* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 09/08/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 41 46 49 49 47 42 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 41 46 49 49 47 42 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 33 38 43 48 52 54 52 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 7 11 12 13 11 6 9 15 26 36 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -2 -4 -3 -5 -4 -4 -2 -4 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 164 143 149 135 158 150 158 177 208 248 233 235 224 SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 122 121 120 120 121 123 124 127 126 127 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 115 114 113 111 112 112 115 116 117 114 116 115 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 55 57 59 58 54 46 40 36 35 38 45 47 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 8 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 70 61 61 66 66 66 58 51 61 60 71 69 63 200 MB DIV 29 19 24 32 51 33 4 -13 -18 -14 -20 -34 -21 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 2 2 5 3 4 6 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1804 1857 1911 1982 2054 2042 1937 1791 1640 1508 1466 1487 1588 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.2 17.4 17.1 16.7 16.3 16.3 16.7 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 34.3 34.8 35.3 36.0 36.6 38.2 39.9 41.7 43.4 44.9 45.6 45.9 46.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 5 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 7 8 8 8 6 4 6 10 12 11 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 21. 24. 24. 22. 17. 13. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 09/08/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 09/08/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED