* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 09/07/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 34 38 42 45 47 49 50 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 34 38 42 45 47 49 50 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 33 37 41 45 49 54 58 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 7 8 11 14 15 14 15 16 12 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 -4 -3 -5 -6 -2 -2 -4 -3 -6 -8 SHEAR DIR 158 175 163 161 146 151 145 158 157 176 158 183 172 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 123 121 120 120 121 124 128 134 137 136 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 114 114 114 112 112 113 117 123 129 131 127 127 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 51 52 56 56 54 49 44 39 36 38 38 42 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 77 69 72 71 57 53 47 42 52 47 53 38 200 MB DIV 37 32 19 20 32 54 13 0 -22 -47 -34 -37 -27 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 2 2 1 3 2 5 3 3 2 0 LAND (KM) 1827 1857 1889 1965 2041 2042 1913 1749 1539 1318 1135 1011 981 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.1 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.2 16.7 16.0 14.9 14.0 13.2 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 34.5 34.8 35.1 35.8 36.5 38.1 40.0 41.8 44.0 45.9 47.6 48.5 48.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 10 8 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 10 7 5 6 8 8 5 2 6 18 26 28 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. 27. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 09/07/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 09/07/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)