* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 09/07/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 35 39 43 45 47 48 50 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 35 39 43 45 47 48 50 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 34 38 41 45 50 54 59 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 13 15 16 11 13 8 14 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -5 -4 -1 -7 -4 -2 -4 -2 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 136 133 154 159 156 167 159 155 152 160 180 169 191 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 122 120 120 119 120 122 124 128 132 135 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 116 113 112 111 110 111 114 117 122 126 127 129 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 48 51 54 56 56 51 46 40 34 34 34 39 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 4 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 77 75 71 73 78 66 57 42 50 42 53 43 200 MB DIV 22 41 49 30 31 63 28 0 -18 -29 -36 -38 -45 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 1 4 5 5 5 4 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 1807 1815 1825 1874 1924 2070 2068 1934 1755 1541 1328 1169 1065 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.4 17.7 17.6 17.0 16.1 15.0 14.0 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 34.3 34.4 34.5 35.0 35.4 36.7 38.4 40.2 42.1 44.1 45.9 47.0 47.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 9 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 6 3 1 1 3 6 2 1 1 5 20 31 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 23. 25. 26. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 09/07/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 09/07/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)