* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 09/07/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 40 43 47 47 48 48 50 51 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 40 43 47 47 48 48 50 51 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 32 34 39 44 47 50 52 56 61 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 12 13 10 15 19 19 16 14 11 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -6 -6 -5 -2 -6 -5 -2 -3 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 127 143 136 168 164 155 161 157 164 162 180 152 181 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.2 27.8 28.0 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 122 121 121 120 120 120 122 127 135 137 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 116 113 112 112 112 111 111 114 120 130 132 137 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.3 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 48 48 49 51 54 53 50 43 35 32 33 32 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 11 11 10 8 6 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 90 87 87 85 79 67 57 51 52 59 51 57 200 MB DIV 15 25 33 50 36 47 53 10 -7 -22 -35 -39 -35 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 1 0 4 2 6 2 5 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1829 1853 1878 1921 1965 2111 2042 1955 1815 1624 1411 1203 1011 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.2 17.2 17.9 18.3 18.1 17.5 16.5 15.4 14.2 LONG(DEG W) 34.5 34.8 35.0 35.4 35.8 37.3 39.0 40.8 42.6 44.8 47.0 49.1 50.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 6 6 6 7 9 8 9 10 11 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 2 3 4 5 2 2 3 4 12 20 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 18. 22. 22. 23. 23. 25. 26. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 09/07/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 09/07/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED