* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 09/07/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 35 40 44 48 49 51 51 54 58 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 35 40 44 48 49 51 51 54 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 38 43 48 52 55 59 64 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 11 12 12 12 20 18 19 16 13 4 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -7 -7 -7 -7 -6 -5 -7 -5 -4 -2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 152 152 153 162 175 167 163 158 154 158 155 119 114 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.7 28.0 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 123 122 121 121 120 122 123 127 133 137 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 114 113 112 112 113 113 113 115 120 128 132 135 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 48 48 49 49 51 52 51 45 40 36 36 39 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 11 11 10 8 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 94 93 91 94 92 80 62 59 55 56 59 65 200 MB DIV 33 19 9 22 29 30 51 32 0 -10 -33 -24 -22 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 3 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 1828 1853 1879 1916 1953 2082 2021 1923 1794 1623 1430 1228 1063 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.5 17.3 17.7 17.7 17.3 16.6 15.6 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 34.5 34.8 35.0 35.4 35.7 37.0 38.6 40.5 42.4 44.5 46.8 49.0 50.7 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 5 6 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 4 3 3 4 6 5 1 2 3 11 19 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 15. 19. 23. 24. 26. 26. 29. 33. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 09/07/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 09/07/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED