* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 09/06/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 29 35 41 46 49 50 51 53 54 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 29 35 41 46 49 50 51 53 54 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 27 32 37 42 45 49 53 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 11 11 12 9 13 17 20 17 17 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -8 -7 -6 -6 -2 -5 -7 -2 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 148 158 151 147 160 151 156 167 166 175 161 183 171 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.3 27.8 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 123 122 121 120 119 120 120 123 128 135 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 113 113 112 111 111 111 112 112 116 122 130 135 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 49 47 48 49 50 52 50 47 41 37 35 35 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 93 98 95 98 95 99 85 69 60 59 54 58 48 200 MB DIV 35 37 21 11 20 31 56 38 16 -4 -31 -24 -38 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 -1 4 0 2 LAND (KM) 1839 1854 1869 1884 1900 1976 2119 2049 1938 1775 1585 1367 1149 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.3 17.3 17.9 18.1 17.8 17.2 16.2 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 34.6 34.8 34.9 35.1 35.2 35.9 37.3 38.9 40.8 42.8 45.0 47.3 49.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 9 10 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 2 4 7 10 18 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 9. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 21. 26. 29. 30. 31. 33. 34. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 09/06/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 09/06/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)