* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 09/06/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 37 43 48 51 53 53 55 55 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 37 43 48 51 53 53 55 55 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 27 31 37 43 49 54 59 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 14 10 12 12 16 13 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -8 -9 -7 -6 -2 -4 -2 -5 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 155 157 158 152 148 174 178 177 170 177 173 191 236 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.2 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 127 124 123 122 121 119 118 118 119 121 122 126 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 114 112 112 110 109 109 109 111 112 114 118 124 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 53 52 50 49 52 52 51 49 43 39 36 34 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 11 9 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 95 98 99 96 100 84 81 72 71 63 64 62 200 MB DIV 44 43 39 26 20 39 35 41 21 7 -4 -19 -24 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 4 0 0 LAND (KM) 1807 1821 1836 1830 1825 1838 1930 2089 2113 1986 1817 1654 1466 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.4 17.2 18.1 18.5 18.5 18.2 17.7 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 34.3 34.5 34.6 34.6 34.5 34.6 35.4 36.8 38.7 40.6 42.7 44.6 46.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 3 4 3 4 7 9 9 9 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 2 4 1 2 7 5 3 7 9 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 21. 25. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 33. 35. 35. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 09/06/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 09/06/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)