* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 09/06/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 29 36 41 46 48 49 49 50 51 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 29 36 41 46 48 49 49 50 51 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 32 36 40 44 48 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 16 15 13 12 18 15 17 12 13 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 -2 -6 -7 -5 -2 -4 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 143 141 145 158 161 166 193 200 208 215 197 207 249 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.7 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 128 126 123 123 120 118 118 119 119 120 120 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 120 117 113 112 109 108 110 110 110 110 111 115 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 59 57 56 56 54 53 52 51 48 45 41 40 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 12 13 12 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 77 77 85 92 95 96 105 81 75 66 62 60 54 200 MB DIV 38 44 41 48 55 22 25 32 18 13 -2 -20 -34 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 3 3 1 1 -2 -6 LAND (KM) 1594 1645 1697 1712 1728 1752 1802 1949 2120 2183 2081 1950 1815 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.3 16.3 17.1 17.9 19.0 19.7 20.1 20.0 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 32.3 32.8 33.3 33.5 33.6 33.8 34.2 35.5 37.2 39.2 41.2 43.2 45.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 3 4 5 6 9 10 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 2 1 2 1 3 2 5 1 8 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 9. 16. 21. 26. 28. 29. 29. 30. 31. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 09/06/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 09/06/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)