* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 09/05/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 31 38 46 51 55 56 56 57 58 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 31 38 46 51 55 56 56 57 58 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 24 27 31 35 41 46 50 55 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 13 13 14 12 13 17 14 20 15 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 0 -1 -1 -6 -5 -7 -3 -5 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 109 124 143 149 151 176 173 203 194 203 199 208 222 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 129 126 123 121 119 118 118 118 118 119 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 129 123 118 113 109 108 108 109 108 109 110 114 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 59 58 57 55 53 51 51 50 48 46 43 40 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 11 11 11 10 9 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 80 77 77 73 78 92 88 91 73 82 63 64 56 200 MB DIV 4 35 38 31 31 34 11 20 10 11 16 -1 -5 700-850 TADV -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1490 1583 1677 1740 1804 1846 1847 1874 1968 2105 2171 2043 1865 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.5 16.1 16.9 17.7 18.7 19.1 19.1 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 31.3 32.2 33.1 33.7 34.3 34.7 34.7 34.9 35.7 37.0 38.6 40.5 42.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 8 6 5 3 4 5 7 7 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 3 3 2 2 3 4 6 7 4 3 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 18. 26. 31. 35. 36. 36. 37. 38. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 09/05/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 09/05/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)