* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 09/03/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 24 27 32 39 46 52 54 56 59 61 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 24 27 32 39 46 52 54 56 59 61 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 22 25 29 34 41 48 54 58 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 26 22 26 23 15 8 6 12 12 6 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 -1 -2 -5 -5 -2 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 52 58 54 50 58 71 84 103 133 192 228 217 202 SST (C) 27.6 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 137 138 141 144 140 133 128 127 129 130 132 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 140 140 141 143 134 124 115 113 116 119 124 122 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 71 69 66 68 70 67 68 64 64 62 61 58 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 41 44 57 69 39 31 40 85 83 78 73 64 200 MB DIV 50 42 42 57 40 16 -4 -1 32 12 7 11 24 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -6 -9 -8 -6 -2 -1 0 0 0 4 6 LAND (KM) 179 163 209 313 369 504 631 725 746 763 825 952 1165 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 11.0 11.9 12.8 13.6 14.9 15.8 16.3 16.3 16.1 16.0 16.0 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 16.5 17.6 18.7 19.7 20.7 22.2 23.3 24.1 24.3 24.5 25.1 26.3 28.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 14 13 12 8 6 3 1 2 4 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 11 10 4 2 1 2 2 2 3 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 23. 28. 31. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 13. 11. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 19. 26. 32. 34. 36. 39. 41. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 09/03/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 09/03/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)