* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 09/03/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 27 34 40 47 54 57 58 60 59 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 27 34 40 47 54 57 58 60 59 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 25 29 34 42 51 58 62 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 26 27 24 26 20 14 8 8 13 14 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 -1 -4 -3 0 -3 -4 -4 -5 -4 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 51 55 62 61 53 71 85 118 105 179 235 235 239 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.0 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 135 136 138 142 142 137 130 126 125 125 123 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 138 138 138 142 138 128 120 114 112 113 113 109 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 71 70 67 67 67 68 64 63 60 57 52 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 67 57 57 67 59 40 32 62 89 94 85 54 200 MB DIV 80 54 44 43 51 15 -5 -3 12 20 0 -19 -26 700-850 TADV -12 -11 -8 -8 -11 -8 -4 -1 -1 0 1 4 11 LAND (KM) 188 212 230 312 421 532 666 759 801 819 868 979 1164 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.4 11.1 11.8 12.5 14.1 15.1 15.9 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.6 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 16.3 17.5 18.6 19.7 20.7 22.4 23.7 24.5 24.8 24.9 25.3 26.2 27.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 12 12 10 7 5 2 2 4 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 9 10 6 3 10 2 2 1 7 8 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 12. 10. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 14. 20. 27. 34. 37. 38. 40. 39. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 09/03/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 09/03/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)