* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 09/03/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 41 48 58 63 67 67 67 63 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 41 48 58 63 67 67 67 63 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 25 28 33 39 47 53 56 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 29 28 25 25 23 20 12 5 8 15 20 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 -2 1 -2 -4 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 66 58 61 67 65 56 74 96 125 208 235 253 239 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.4 26.7 26.0 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 128 131 134 136 137 142 141 138 132 127 119 113 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 133 136 138 137 139 134 128 122 116 109 104 98 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.5 -54.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 67 67 67 65 62 65 63 68 66 69 67 60 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 9 8 8 8 10 10 13 13 13 13 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 49 61 60 56 52 78 52 53 47 67 65 54 18 200 MB DIV 78 90 63 66 73 88 54 11 17 58 27 25 -1 700-850 TADV -6 -10 -13 -14 -15 -20 -13 -5 -2 2 5 13 17 LAND (KM) 175 223 270 272 334 471 524 559 578 620 667 712 829 LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.4 9.9 10.6 11.2 12.7 14.0 15.1 16.2 17.3 18.5 19.7 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 15.3 16.5 17.6 18.7 19.7 21.3 22.3 22.7 22.7 22.7 22.8 23.7 25.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 11 9 7 6 5 6 6 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 6 10 11 8 6 3 2 1 10 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 14. 12. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 21. 28. 38. 43. 47. 47. 47. 43. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 09/03/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 09/03/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)