* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 09/02/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 28 35 44 51 58 63 67 69 68 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 28 35 44 51 58 63 67 69 68 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 25 28 32 38 45 53 60 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 26 27 26 23 24 21 16 9 7 7 12 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 1 0 0 0 0 -4 -1 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 81 70 60 58 57 50 73 86 98 120 200 219 230 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 126 129 130 133 135 138 142 139 135 129 124 120 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 129 131 134 136 137 138 132 125 118 113 109 104 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.0 -53.4 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 68 67 67 65 65 64 64 66 66 65 63 61 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 9 7 6 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 45 50 55 60 53 58 61 48 34 64 77 71 64 200 MB DIV 62 77 78 48 70 66 39 21 2 36 36 22 4 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -8 -11 -12 -14 -12 -8 -4 0 0 3 8 LAND (KM) 231 280 328 344 350 441 530 582 626 656 708 807 904 LAT (DEG N) 8.2 8.5 8.8 9.4 10.0 11.5 13.1 14.4 15.5 16.4 17.3 18.2 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 15.3 16.3 17.2 18.2 19.1 20.8 22.1 22.9 23.3 23.4 23.6 24.2 25.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 10 9 7 5 5 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 5 8 12 13 10 8 3 2 6 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 16. 14. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 15. 24. 31. 38. 43. 47. 49. 48. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 09/02/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 09/02/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED