* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 07/24/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 43 48 52 55 57 58 59 58 55 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 43 48 52 55 57 58 59 58 55 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 49 53 55 57 58 60 63 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 1 2 5 8 9 10 17 15 20 20 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 0 -1 -1 -1 2 5 0 0 -3 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 38 43 37 213 218 234 231 248 266 269 249 233 248 SST (C) 26.7 26.4 25.9 25.3 25.3 25.8 26.4 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 124 121 116 111 111 115 121 127 130 133 135 133 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 123 117 111 111 115 120 125 126 125 126 123 120 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.5 -54.2 -54.4 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -53.5 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 73 71 71 72 68 61 57 49 49 46 47 48 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 13 16 25 34 25 21 25 6 -4 -20 -20 -19 -23 200 MB DIV -3 3 24 22 24 23 23 14 13 9 12 25 4 700-850 TADV -4 -2 2 0 0 8 14 18 12 -1 -2 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 1053 1250 1450 1669 1889 1927 1703 1576 1456 1291 1051 836 672 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 20 20 20 20 19 18 16 13 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 7 17 16 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. 28. 25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 07/24/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 07/24/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)