* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 07/24/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 34 40 44 47 51 54 56 58 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 34 40 44 47 51 54 56 58 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 37 42 46 50 53 58 62 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 8 2 2 3 10 9 12 12 12 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -1 1 0 0 -2 0 -4 1 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 47 36 42 348 253 235 217 248 246 273 231 250 233 SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.4 25.8 25.3 25.5 26.0 26.7 27.2 27.5 27.9 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 121 123 120 115 110 113 117 123 129 133 138 138 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 124 121 114 109 113 116 121 127 133 137 133 130 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.5 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.1 -54.6 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 4 5 7 7 9 9 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 75 75 72 72 73 70 59 54 52 48 47 49 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 11 9 14 25 30 23 25 9 5 -7 -4 -14 -10 200 MB DIV 16 0 -3 15 7 20 19 13 -3 7 26 27 12 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -4 0 -1 2 6 10 5 4 -2 -7 -6 LAND (KM) 888 1066 1248 1434 1621 2029 1840 1648 1514 1324 1046 696 434 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 18 18 18 20 19 17 17 19 18 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 11 4 22 16 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 25. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 9. 15. 19. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 07/24/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 07/24/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)