* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 07/23/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 48 53 55 56 58 60 61 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 48 53 55 56 58 60 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 39 46 52 56 58 60 64 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 11 11 8 2 3 10 10 12 10 15 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -6 -4 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 70 59 54 38 39 228 280 241 248 255 252 244 221 SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.4 25.4 25.8 26.4 27.0 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 121 123 124 125 121 112 116 121 128 131 136 141 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 123 126 127 122 112 116 122 128 129 134 141 139 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 700-500 MB RH 72 74 74 73 74 76 69 63 54 52 47 46 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 19 14 16 22 31 26 27 21 4 0 -8 -4 -15 200 MB DIV 24 13 -3 -2 9 13 20 7 6 0 4 30 22 700-850 TADV 2 0 -3 -4 -2 -1 0 6 7 6 -3 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 725 868 1017 1192 1373 1783 1919 1685 1525 1399 1137 876 485 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 16 18 19 20 21 21 19 17 17 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 5 9 25 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 23. 28. 30. 31. 33. 35. 36. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 07/23/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 07/23/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED