* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 07/23/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 41 42 41 41 42 44 45 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 39 41 42 41 41 42 44 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 39 40 41 41 41 44 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 11 6 4 6 7 8 17 20 18 18 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 0 2 4 2 4 1 -1 -2 -4 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 64 84 61 18 340 263 261 244 257 261 282 273 261 SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.3 25.2 25.3 25.8 26.5 26.9 27.2 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 122 120 121 122 120 110 111 115 121 125 129 132 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 120 121 123 120 109 109 112 118 121 123 125 126 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 72 71 74 65 60 55 53 49 50 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 5 5 5 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 22 15 8 3 10 19 10 14 -12 -14 -25 -29 -26 200 MB DIV 46 42 28 7 10 15 24 17 -6 -8 4 5 27 700-850 TADV -3 0 -1 -2 -1 3 7 19 12 9 3 0 -2 LAND (KM) 631 749 880 1038 1204 1591 2016 2010 1841 1722 1511 1254 971 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.7 13.2 13.9 14.5 16.0 17.3 18.4 19.2 19.8 20.2 20.7 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 22.7 24.1 25.5 27.1 28.7 32.3 36.2 40.1 43.8 47.4 50.8 54.0 56.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 16 17 18 20 20 19 17 17 16 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 14 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 9 23 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 16. 17. 16. 16. 17. 19. 20. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 07/23/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 07/23/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED