* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982013 07/23/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 39 42 43 42 42 43 44 45 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 39 42 43 42 42 43 44 45 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 39 41 42 42 42 44 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 10 5 4 8 12 15 19 18 21 17 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -1 0 3 2 4 4 0 0 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 55 61 86 42 350 272 244 248 241 266 273 274 258 SST (C) 26.9 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.5 25.4 25.2 25.7 26.3 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 124 120 120 120 121 112 110 114 120 125 128 131 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 119 119 119 122 111 109 112 117 120 122 125 125 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 75 73 74 73 72 70 66 61 57 51 50 50 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 6 5 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 20 21 12 6 3 20 16 14 3 -19 -16 -31 -27 200 MB DIV 63 50 41 24 6 14 16 25 9 -2 0 24 23 700-850 TADV -6 -3 1 0 -1 6 7 15 20 12 15 2 -4 LAND (KM) 541 650 775 928 1087 1472 1898 2079 1906 1784 1580 1301 1005 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.8 14.3 15.8 17.2 18.5 19.4 20.1 20.5 21.0 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 21.8 23.2 24.5 26.1 27.6 31.2 35.1 39.2 43.0 46.7 50.2 53.6 56.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 16 17 20 20 19 18 17 16 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 18 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 17. 18. 17. 17. 18. 19. 20. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982013 INVEST 07/23/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982013 INVEST 07/23/2013 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED